Melbourne Cup 2011 day tips and selections

It’s the first Tuesday in Novemeber…It’s Melbourne Cup day. At 3pm Melbourne time, 24 horses will race for glory in the $6 Million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the entire nation, as well as some parts of the world. It is going to be a super day of racing, with the first race, for the juveniles, to get under away at 10.20am Melbourne time.

Melbourne Cup day Form Guide

Race One: Emirates Airline Plate 1000m
Back Me: Alezan Thunder oozed class on debut and being trained by Kav, she would have had some experience down the straight.
Don’t Back Me: Applegate is beautifully bred and has trialled well, but the wide barrier might a worry.
Big Danger: Big Chill looks a jump and run type who was a good trial winner at Cranbourne. Stable do have a good record with two year olds.
Roughie: Rhandara finished second behind Big Chill in that trial and could surprise from the inside barrier.

Race Two: Tab Sportsbet Handicap 1700m
Back Me: Smoulder was very good in the Seymour Cup against the bias. Should get cover and her NZ form just about gets her home.
Don’t Back Me: Vintedge whacked it away nicely at Rosehill, but she is dropping back in distance which is a concern.
Big Danger: Foxstar had the charmed run and won like a good thing last start. She might go on with it now she has got that win.
Roughie: Tantrum has been excellent in four aussie runs since coming from NZ. Won like a good horse at Terang and can take the next step.

Race Three: Lavazza Long Black (95) 2800m
Back Me: Excluded was slaughtered last start by Yendall in the Terang Cup. Should have won by panels. Hall jumps on and he’ll be looking for redemption.
Don’t Back Me: Western Symbol fought on like a tiger in the Bendigo Cup, but the rise in distance is a worry plus he has been up for a while.
Big Danger: Adroitly had the race run to suit at Randwick but found one better in Galizani. 2800m and the bigger track helps him big time.
Roughie: Crafty Cruiser only knows one way to run and that is just chip away. A must for exotics.

Race Four: Herald Sun Stakes 1400m
Back Me: I know she is first up, but gee Divorces looks well placed here. Two trials for this have been super and hopefully the price is right because she looks a special.
Don’t Back Me: Neriani is ultra consistent, but the barrier might be her undoing as there is plenty of pace on her outside and she may get held up.
Big Danger: Little Surfer Girl had excuses last start. She didn’t handle the track or the surface, she was wide and she had a cardiac abnormality. At her best, she is a threat.
Roughie: Gai’s Choice just looked in need of the run at Geelong behind Inablitz. Fitter and she might be the knockout horse if she gets the right run.

Race Five: Schweppes Tonic 1000 1000m
Back Me: The good thing of the year here in Karuta Queen. Too nippy, too classy, too good.
Don’t Back Me: Spirited Addition is in winning form, but this is a massive leap in class.
Big Danger: African Pulse is a very nice colt, but he is bumping into a superstar. Can fill the placings.
Roughie: The Counterfeiter was caught wide on a fast tempo and tired. If he gets a drag in the run, he is a first four hope.

Race Six: Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m
Back Me: Hoping the Beadman magic is brought here with Princess Layla. Smart debut winner before bumping into a smart type in Sindarin. Hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Combat Kitty returned in good order behind Hot Snitzel but the form doesn’t read well with that horse being beaten on Saturday.
Big Danger: Disputes just could not match it with Atlantic Jewel in the Thousand Guineas. Big drop in class and gets to a bigger track.
Roughie: The Fairy’s Kiss couldn’t stave off Platelet at Caulfield last start. Freshened, gun barrier, a first four hope.

Race Seven: Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m
Back Me: Can’t go past the effort of Unusual Suspect in the Caulfield Cup. That’s the best guide to this race and he was the pick of the lot for me.
Don’t Back Me: Any of the imports that haven’t had a run in Australia. The only import to have won a Melbourne Cup at it’s Aussie debut was Vintage Crop in 93.
Big Danger: Americain is the defending champ and his win at Moonee Valley suggests he is back to his best.
Roughie: I wouldn’t leave out Shamrocker just because she is at Flemington and her run in the Turnbull was good.

Race Eight: Johnnie Walker Stakes 1800m
Back Me: Going for some value in God Has Spoken. Two runs in Victoria have been good and the distance rise helps.
Don’t Back Me: Red Colossus is a money muncher and Symons has jumped off him. That’s enough for me to sack him.
Big Danger: Lamasery is a classy animal and if he is 100% right, he is the one to beat.
Roughie: Voice Commander will roll along in front and Kathy is back on which is a big help with this horse.

Race Nine: Mss Security Sprint 1200m
Back Me: Perturbo is a such a good straight course galloper who looks beautifully placed in a somewhat weak race compared to what he has raced against.
Don’t Back Me: Facile Tigre is in great form of late, but he might be risk as he is on debut down the straight.
Big Danger: If the real Eagle Falls turns up here, he will go very close to winning. Class will carry him a long way.
Roughie: Parables has a terrible barrier, but she will be hitting the line hard late.

Race Ten: 7News Plate Handicap (89) 1400m
Back Me: Hood is knocking on the door to win a race and the perfect barrier will go a long way towards victory.
Don’t Back Me: Studley Park is a very good horse, but the 1400m against this class might be a tad short.
Big Danger: Under The Eiffel is a classy animal who looks well placed. Barrier is a concern but Jamie Mott will take care of that.
Roughie: Verdasco got a long way back and worked home well against the bias at Seymour. Horror draw but he is racing so well that you can’t ignore him.

Written by Adam Page

30 Oct 2011


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